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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2009.11.28 23:23:00 -
[1]
 Originally by: Kanatta Jing
Patch notes kick out Chromium and Platinum as bottle necks. All hail our new Technetium overlords.
But fear the stealth patch!
Show of hands, who thinks CCP will try to fix the bottleneck for T2 minerals using the same method they used to "fix" the T3 bottleneck?
\o/\o/\o/ o/\o \o o/ o/ o/ o/\o/ o/\o \o o/
(we all know little green men know best)
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2010.03.05 03:46:00 -
[2]
I'm sure those who are invested in Tc hope for rising prices, but T2 volume has been quite soft post Dominion patch for a variety of reasons. Until T2 demand fully recovers (which it may not due to essentially free battleships as well as T3 pressure) high end moon material prices will probably not rise dramatically.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2010.03.31 00:59:00 -
[3]
Dysprosium is selling @ 53k in Jita, but the other high ends haven't moved much. WTF?
In other news, we could use a table of insurance returns currently implemented on Sisi. Something like:
Tier 1 BS: 50% return for plat.
Tier 2 BS: 45% return for plat.
Marauder: 30% return for plat.
Covert Ops: 60% return for plat.
...
With the above info. there is plenty of room for informed speculation as to what the hot new PvP ships will be cost vrs. utility wise. It may also shed some light on how badly the mineral basket will crash post patch.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.06.09 04:16:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Khanid Voltar
From this post 52 on this thread:
Originally by: CCP Greyscale
Is technetium working as intended?
>> Technetium is is fairly urgent need of a nerf. That said, the reasons why it's like that are fairly well-understood internally - if you sit down and really look at the current T2 production tree (like we did when we last looked at moon minerals), you'll eventually see that it's really damn hard to solve this problem without extensive restructuring in a very messy manner. That said, we know we have to bite the bullet and make that mess at some point in the near future. (And yes, we were obviously aware that this was going to be a production bottleneck when we made the change, and no, it's not been anything like as bad as the doomsday predictions that were floating around at the time.)
KV
Oh Noosss!!1 They're nerfing Tech! SELL SELL SELL!!11!
The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling and CCP's failure to implement a nerf in the next month or two.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.06.09 15:59:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Clambumper June
Originally by: Terrible Karma
Oh Noosss!!1 They're nerfing Tech! SELL SELL SELL!!11!
The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling and CCP's failure to implement a nerf in the next month or two.
You apparently expect CCP to jump right on this when they have so much going on with the big summer release. The Tech ride will go on until at least the winter. Buy some and quit your crap chat.
I'd love to buy some, but you're ruining my chance to get rich by stopping The Panic(TM)!
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 09/06/2011 13:45:07
Originally by: Terrible Karma
The question I have is how much isk will Akita make from the panic selling
Probably none. I've been taking a "market timeout" for a while now, and don't really plan on getting on the roller coaster again any time soon.
What?? It's not so bad that you've decided to undock I hope?!
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Akita T
Don't forget to buy futures in pants fire extinguishers 
lololol
I like how they expressly took a shot at you with "not as bad as the doomsayers predicted" or whatever it was. I bet the only reason it's not at 250k or worse is because, on your analysis, people stockpiled so we didn't clear huge amounts at much lower prices and towered moons early so there was much more supply than otherwise would have been.
The silly thing is they're absolutely right that it's an incredibly hard system to balance, and their only real fault is that they're trying to create something that's too complex for their ability to control. The fact that they can't just admit you were right and they ****ed up is comical, even though they use their inability to control the system as an excuse in the very same paragraph.
:ccp:
I too find it comical how Greyscale is trying so hard to retcon their incompetence. If they really know how the production and markets worked they wouldn't have created A GIANT BOTTLENECK IN T3 PRODUCTION when they built the thing from scratch.
I disagree it's hard to make a balanced production and market chain (if that's what you're saying). T2 and T3 (or any multi-item) production chains don't necessarily have to have a bottleneck material(s).
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.06.09 16:09:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Akita T
Their "mistake", if we are to call it that, is not designing a system that self-balances.
Right now, everything has a single path, and each path has a positive feedback.
We need at least two (preferably three or even more) alternative paths, with negative feedback.
Alchemy is one such path, but its branches need to go down even to the "moonjunk", and the added fuel-based costs need to be reduced (better "time" efficiency of alchemy reactions, even if the material replacement rate goes worse than currently for some of the lower tiers).
But just alchemy is not enough, you also need some "work-based" approach to obtaining moon minerals (or any of their products) - be it exploration content (combat sites, finding comets, special mission rewards), or from planetary resources, or even ship-based moon extraction boosting.
I mostly agree, but 2 things:
1. I dislike alchemy since it's just another thing that breaks the 'hard science' feel of Eve. I'd much prefer a set of alternative BPOs for components that use various diff. mixes of inputs (e.g., much more low ends and fewer high ends).
2. I don't mind having a few really valuable passive resources such as Tc moons, but we really need a smoother transition between super valuable moons and utter trash moons. Of course, I wouldn't cry if passive sources went away and were replaced by active sources so long as bots can't make those active sources way more valuable for cheaters than regular players (e.g. 0.0 ratting).
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.06.11 15:55:00 -
[7]
Looks like people are running scared after all. Tc has been down about 10% for a couple days now and if the market history is accurate almost no one is buying from sell orders.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.06.17 04:23:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Ludacrys
massive butthurt incoming
Is there some new bit of info. that's been released or on the test server???
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.06.30 16:32:00 -
[9]
Any news / speculation on Tc? Seems like CCP have their hands full right now with all the rage so perhaps Tc has another 6 months to a year till the Patch of Doom(TM) arrives. Still, a lot of players have said they're canceling accounts and I wonder if there will be unexpected wider market implications. IIRC Tc demand is well over supply though I can't recall the actual percentage. It seems unlikely demand would fall below supply, but is most demand generated from 0.0 fights or just average player churn?
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.09 01:09:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Akita T
Nice panics are good for business 
You know it's odd. If it was just a panic AND Tc was as much of a bottleneck as we think then prices should be rising for the end products since production has slowed due to panic. It's not like we had stockpiles of Tc to go through. |
Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.10 02:00:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Akita T
Edited by: Akita T on 09/07/2011 11:17:24
Originally by: Terrible Karma
Originally by: Akita T
Nice panics are good for business
You know it's odd. If it was just a panic AND Tc was as much of a bottleneck as we think then prices should be rising for the end products since production has slowed due to panic. It's not like we had stockpiles of Tc to go through.
Actually, yes, we did have HUGE stockpiles, that was the only reason the price of tech hasn't shot up like crazy immediately after the Dominion patch and instead it slowly creeped upwards.
And we still have serious stockpiles (smaller than those in December 2009, but still noticeable), with current stockpilers being the main sellers in a time of "it will almost certainly be nerfed, and I'm afraid it will happen before I can unload my piles at a high price" type of panic, like the one happening right now.
I'm not saying the panic is not justified, because it just might be - CCP could (at least theoretically) end up rejiggering (nerfing) Technetium before the stockpiles actually do run out (so before Tech has a chance to reach truly "Monopolesque" levels of pricing).
P.S. Anyway, in this particular type of panic, end product prices go lower, not higher.
Didn't the CCP economist say they looked into stockpiling and there was no Tc related stockpiling during fanfest?! What evidence are you looking at to say there are large stocks? I'm not setup to do the calculations quickly, but what do your #'s say when you plug them into the calc's you did at the beginning of this tread? If you're right we should see that supply of the Tc end products is much larger than the maximum steady state Tc production. |
Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.10 16:07:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Yeah, plus right now there are much more promising markets than Tech.
It'd be fun if someone could scavenge the year old posts with me and Anakienine discussing about the future (now current) Tech prices.
What markets would those be? When you start a well sourced thread like this one I'll believe it. |
Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.13 00:17:00 -
[13]
Originally by: AnakieNine
He's that rich from doing <insert_whatever_one_can_do_in_eve> here.
Pretty much. However I think you have insider information?  hehe :P
Black was one of the few people that was privy to real time info on a number of things I was doing around that time. I miss chatting to that old group of players. 
I'm curious about a few things. What is your current NAV if you don't mind telling? Did you make that mostly from trading or were high level 0.0 alliance contacts / activities critical to making over a trillion isk? One guy said you owned Domain? Does that mean you were in charge of moon goo in the days of BoB?
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.17 21:23:00 -
[14]
Looks like the panic is accelerating. Tc is down to 69.9k pu. I'm told some guy from Raiden named Geezh sold out to a lot of buy orders. I wonder if the alliances are trying Akita's suggestions.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.17 22:57:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Told you guys.
should be 20k sells, 5k buys by monday morning normal person tz (na).
Gratz to those who listened, rofl at those who didnt get out at 80k/90k, enjoy getting a quarter of that.
I have yet to see one iota of evidence from you. You're nothing, but hot air and retcons.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.17 23:56:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Elise DarkStar
Originally by: Terrible Karma
I have yet to see one iota of evidence from you. You're nothing, but hot air and retcons.
Uscared, bro? You sound scared. Ride it right to the bottom for all I care. More schadenfreude for me.
Yup, lots of hot air and wanna be internet tough guy. Tc could fall to 100 isk pu and all that forum spam you're generating will still be useless noise.
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Terrible Karma
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Posted - 2011.07.18 00:00:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Alain Kinsella
Originally by: Herman Klaus
What better way to hurt the Russians taking over the north than to crash the reason they're there. If the Tech moons seem worthless then NC leave with a smug grim on their faces.
Though I agree (several posts ago), they're only going to seem worthless right now. Unless something else happens to keep this price point, its definitely not going to end up or stay at the pre-Dominion level.
Quote:
Still doesn't get round the fact that the moons don't pump out enough to satisfy daily demand. Therefore once all the speculation holders get out of Tech then it can only go back up. Its gonna be a slow burner, but it'll be back over 100k by Sept.
As MMarlon (and Akita) mentioned previously, there are still the old stockpiles to go through, from the pre-Dominion days. I don't remember what the numbers are but that data is not as important.
What will be more important (short-term) is who sold all those stocks. I don't suppose someone with the appropriate transaction history would be willing to supply a 'mile high' overview? (yes, I know that's like asking for blood from a stone, but ya never know.)
I'd also be interested in hearing from anyone who knows just how big those stockpiles are. Akita gave a range previously, but it was basically anywhere from not much to couple years supply.
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